To Buy, or Not to Buy

Dear Pat,
We've been planning to buy our first house next spring, but we talked to a Realtor who said it would be better not to wait. Is she right? Or does she just need another customer?
---Hesitating

Dear Hesitating,
Yes. And, probably, "yes" to your second question (although we Realtors prefer to think of you as clients, not customers. There's an important distinction involving agency relationships and responsibilities--but that's another subject). Fact is, there are good reasons why you'd likely do better buying this fall instead of waiting until spring.

First, let's take a look at a typical year in the real estate world. The "spring market" reflecting high buyer demand actually begins in the winter months of January, February and March. Price benchmarks are usually set for the year during these early months, with multiple offers often resulting from eager buyers circling around a relatively small inventory of listed homes. Homes come on the market in greater numbers in May, June, and July, and usually during these months we experience the best balance of buyers to sellers. But by August demand begins to slow, while many sellers are still readying their homes for sale. September and October can see a large number of homes coming to market, with relatively smaller numbers of buyers looking. Thus the fall usually provides the best opportunity for smart shopping.

And what do I mean by smart shopping, Hesitating? The law of supply and demand obviously dictates that fall prices are often a bit lower than the previous spring-not to mention next spring, when the traditional multiple offer frenzy begins anew. With fewer buyers as your competition, you can take the time to pick carefully from an inventory of homes that won't disappear overnight. You can make your offer contingent on a complete home inspection, an important (and I believe, necessary) component of purchase that buyers in spring competition sometimes have to forego.

I would rearrange our real estate year if I could--I'd level out the seasons by bringing in more sellers during the winter, and more smart buyers in the fall, to smooth out the price swings and frustration. But as sure as it'll snow this winter, so shall the typical seasonal cycle of supply and demand begin again. Your path is clear, Hesitating. Buying today is your best choice.